Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:38 am at Long Beach); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2476 at 12:35, 35%.

Nonstops today


WN 2476 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 12:35	AUS 17:30	35%	8%	0.1%	83%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 16:10 → PHX 17:30WN 2493	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 20:55 → AUS 01:18 +1WN 3354	7h 08m	99%	67%
Southwest Details →	LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 20:55 → AUS 01:38 +1WN 4642	5h 23m	94%	66%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:55 → SMF 11:20WN 2504	3h 40m Sacramento	SMF 15:00 → AUS 20:25WN 3894	8h 30m	100%	61%
Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	1h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	6h 30m	94%	61%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → DEN 13:00WN 4238	1h 30m Denver	DEN 14:30 → AUS 17:40WN 1478	5h 55m	94%	60%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:30 → DAL 14:30WN 264	1h 21m Dallas	DAL 15:51 → AUS 17:00WN 1320	5h 30m	95%	58%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483	1h 41m Houston	HOU 15:46 → AUS 16:49WN 369	5h 59m	100%	57%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → PHX 11:05WN 2492	2h 00m Phoenix	PHX 13:05 → AUS 17:28WN 202	5h 43m	98%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LGB 14:50 → DEN 18:05WN 2479	51m Denver	DEN 18:56 → AUS 22:08WN 1129	5h 18m	66%	34%
Southwest Details →	LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 20:25 → AUS 01:10 +1WN 2186	4h 55m	65%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON