Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3716 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3716 LGB 08:30 → RNO 09:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2496 LGB 17:30 → RNO 18:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3716 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 08:30	RNO 09:50	9%	2%	0.5%	100%
WN 3583 Southwest	LGB 10:25	RNO 11:57	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3680 Southwest	LGB 18:30	RNO 20:03	27%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2496 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 17:30	RNO 18:50	30%	6%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON