Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2582 LGB 10:29 → SMF 11:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2507 LGB 19:00 → SMF 20:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2582 Southwest	LGB 10:29	SMF 11:26	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 2583 Southwest	LGB 13:20	SMF 14:55	16%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 2505 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 13:30	SMF 14:55	17%	5%	0.2%	88%
WN 4897 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 16:20	SMF 17:45	18%	7%	0.2%	50%
WN 2584 Southwest	LGB 16:55	SMF 18:30	18%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 2585 Southwest	LGB 19:00	SMF 20:35	19%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2507 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 19:00	SMF 20:30	20%	7%	0.2%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON