Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at Little Rock); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5478 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 17:23	IAH 19:10	26%	9%	0.4%	85%worse than usual
OO 5450 SkyWest	LIT 17:43	IAH 18:43	35%	10%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 17:14 → ATL 19:58DL 3025	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 43m	96%	64%
American Details →	LIT 17:38 → DFW 19:14AA 4008 · flown by Envoy	3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:53 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	6h 31m	96%	45%
American Details →	LIT 18:53 → DFW 20:30AA 3635 · flown by Envoy	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	5h 05m	94%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON