Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:26 pm at Little Rock); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 19:05, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LIT 19:05 → DAL 20:15WN 586	2h 10m Dallas	DAL 22:25 → LAS 23:16WN 1768	6h 11m	100%	69%
American Details →	LIT 18:30 → CLT 21:34AA 5672 · flown by PSA	59m Charlotte	CLT 22:33 → LAS 00:11 +1AA 1596	7h 41m	82%	51%
American Details →	LIT 18:53 → DFW 20:30AA 3635 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:59 → LAS 23:48AA 2998	6h 55m	94%	50%
American Details →	LIT 19:49 → DFW 21:26AA 3674 · flown by Envoy	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:34 → LAS 23:26AA 624	5h 37m	84%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON