Today: AA 5296 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–40%.

Safest bet today AA 5296 MAF 07:00 → DFW 08:32 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 6199 MAF 18:42 → DFW 20:06 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5296 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MAF 07:00	DFW 08:32	17%	9%	1.4%	75%
AA 3343 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 08:30	DFW 09:57	17%	8%	1.0%	89%
AA 3651 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 11:45	DFW 13:10	21%	7%	0.8%	85%
AA 3352 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 07:54	DFW 09:13	21%	8%	1.0%	88%
OO 6282 SkyWest	MAF 07:02	DFW 08:26	23%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 3652 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 14:21	DFW 15:47	24%	7%	0.8%	72%
AA 3657 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 20:23	DFW 21:48	25%	9%	1.3%	79%
AA 4279 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 20:14	DFW 21:42	25%	8%	1.3%	82%
MQ 3511 Envoy	MAF 12:58	DFW 14:27	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 5621 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MAF 14:31	DFW 15:54	27%	9%	1.4%	85%worse than usual
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 17:23	DFW 18:49	28%	8%	1.3%	63%
OO 4982 SkyWest	MAF 10:42	DFW 12:13	31%	12%	0.8%	no record
OH 5402 PSA	MAF 17:27	DFW 18:50	33%	10%	1.8%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 18:46	DFW 20:20	37%	15%	1.6%	75%worse than usual
AA 6199 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 18:42	DFW 20:06	40%	16%	1.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON