Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:26 pm at Kansas City); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2046 MCI 17:04 → CLT 20:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 1629 MCI 18:30 → CLT 21:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2046 American Flight history →	MCI 17:04	CLT 20:34	22%	7%	0.2%	75%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	MCI 14:00	CLT 17:14	23%	6%	0.2%	84%
AA 1629 American	MCI 18:30	CLT 21:41	26%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON