tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:02 am at Kansas City); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:40, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 5h 57m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MCI 14:56 → IAH 17:13UA 6124 · flown by Mesa 2h 48m Houston IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 02m 98% 74%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 13:45 → STL 14:50WN 2083 1h 05m St Louis STL 15:55 → ECP 17:40WN 4988 3h 55m 90% 71%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 15:00 → BNA 16:35WN 5069 2h 50m Nashville BNA 19:25 → ECP 20:57WN 554 5h 57m 100% 62%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494 5h 08m 92% 62%
DeltaDetails → MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 5h 39m 97% 62%
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:04 → CLT 20:34AA 2046 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 23:09 → ECP 23:54AA 5633 · flown by PSA 6h 50m 92% 59%
AmericanDetails → MCI 11:26 → DFW 13:10AA 602 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:16 → ECP 16:21AA 3502 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 85% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCI 13:45 → STL 14:50WN 2083 50m St Louis STL 15:40 → ECP 17:41WN 4070 3h 56m 67% 54%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 16:15 → DEN 17:05WN 2549 50m Denver DEN 17:55 → ECP 22:05WN 4379 5h 50m 75% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON