Today: UA 1969 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–31%.

Safest bet today UA 1969 MCI 06:05 → EWR 09:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 3522 MCI 15:27 → EWR 19:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1969 United Flight history →	MCI 06:05	EWR 09:58	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1813 United	MCI 06:29	EWR 10:28	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3514 Republic	MCI 15:25	EWR 19:49	30%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 3522 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MCI 15:27	EWR 19:30	31%	9%	0.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON