Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4456 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4456 MCI 06:30 → HOU 08:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2556 MCI 19:50 → HOU 21:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4456 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:30	HOU 08:35	4%	1%	0.5%	96%
WN 2555 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 11:55	HOU 14:05	11%	2%	0.5%	84%
WN 2913 Southwest	MCI 11:55	HOU 14:06	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2556 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 19:50	HOU 21:55	20%	4%	0.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON