Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:39 am at Kansas City)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 14:10, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 5262 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 10:30	JFK 14:44	14%	9%	3.7%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCI 09:18 → ORD 10:52AA 6349 · flown by SkyWest	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 12:50 → JFK 16:28AA 4371 · flown by Republic	6h 10m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	6h 47m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	6h 57m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	6h 58m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	8h 12m	98%	82%
American Details →	MCI 09:14 → ORD 11:05AA 6250 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 13:38 → JFK 17:04AA 2485	6h 50m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 13m	99%	76%
American Details →	MCI 09:45 → DFW 11:30AA 2050	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:59 → JFK 18:37AA 1040	7h 52m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCI 18:40 → ATL 21:54DL 1470	47m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	5h 10m	64%	53%
American Details →	MCI 11:26 → DFW 13:10AA 602	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:59 → JFK 18:37AA 1040	6h 11m	68%	49%
American Details →	MCI 13:59 → CLT 17:14AA 1616	48m Charlotte	CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657	5h 07m	67%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON