Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4366 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 4366 MCI 05:30 → ORD 07:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6459 MCI 19:23 → ORD 20:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4366 Republic	MCI 05:30	ORD 07:18	7%	5%	0.3%	no record
AA 3845 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 05:30	ORD 07:31	8%	4%	0.6%	97%
UA 5485 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 06:00	ORD 07:58	11%	6%	0.4%	89%
YX 4386 Republic	MCI 07:21	ORD 09:09	11%	5%	0.3%	no record
UA 5504 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:34	ORD 11:29	12%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1491 United Flight history →	MCI 07:53	ORD 09:45	13%	5%	0.4%	86%
OO 5680 SkyWest	MCI 06:03	ORD 07:40	13%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:18	ORD 10:53	13%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 4745 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MCI 17:21	ORD 19:29	13%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 2437 United Flight history →	MCI 11:25	ORD 13:15	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
MQ 3526 Envoy	MCI 16:17	ORD 17:54	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 6250 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:14	ORD 11:05	15%	6%	0.6%	76%
OO 5735 SkyWest	MCI 10:00	ORD 11:37	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5309 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 13:03	ORD 14:55	16%	6%	0.6%	76%
AA 6249 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 13:30	ORD 15:21	16%	6%	0.6%	66%
OO 6197 SkyWest	MCI 12:32	ORD 14:06	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2792 United Flight history →	MCI 15:16	ORD 17:05	19%	4%	0.6%	71%
AA 6399 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 19:46	ORD 21:38	22%	8%	0.7%	40%
UA 1369 United	MCI 15:23	ORD 16:59	24%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5853 SkyWest	MCI 17:15	ORD 19:02	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 303 United Flight history →	MCI 18:41	ORD 20:33	25%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 2770 United Flight history →	MCI 17:37	ORD 19:30	26%	6%	0.6%	71%
OO 6459 SkyWest	MCI 19:23	ORD 20:58	28%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON