tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:42 pm at Kansas City); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 18:00, 49% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 501 Alaska Flight history → MCI 19:58 SEA 21:58 42% 11% 0.6% 84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:42 → MSP 19:15DL 1630 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 8h 16m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → MCI 15:16 → ORD 17:05UA 2792 3h 28m Chicago ORD 20:33 → SEA 23:05UA 2211 9h 49m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 23:59DL 2998 7h 59m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:21 → ORD 19:29AA 4745 · flown by Republic 2h 34m Chicago ORD 22:03 → SEA 00:43 +1AA 2392 9h 22m 97% 66%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:55 → LAX 17:20DL 1517 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 21:15 → SEA 00:03 +1DL 2616 10h 08m 97% 63%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903 10h 21m 97% 61%
UnitedDetails → MCI 17:24 → DEN 18:25UA 2123 2h 45m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 7h 46m 97% 61%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 6h 44m 86% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 19:46 → ORD 21:38AA 6399 · flown by SkyWest 49m Chicago ORD 22:27 → SEA 00:59 +1AA 1459 7h 13m 65% 42%
UnitedDetails → MCI 16:26 → LAX 18:10UA 5489 · flown by SkyWest 57m Los Angeles LAX 19:07 → SEA 22:00UA 684 7h 34m 58% 38%
AmericanDetails → MCI 19:53 → DFW 21:41AA 2047 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 7h 04m 65% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON