Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2676 at 22:20, 35%.

Safest bet today WN 2676 MCO 22:20 → AUS 00:13 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2598 MCO 16:35 → AUS 18:25 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2676 Southwest	MCO 22:20	AUS 00:13	35%	13%	1.0%	no record
WN 2600 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:20	AUS 23:55	37%	13%	1.0%	50%
WN 4398 Southwest	MCO 11:51	AUS 13:44	37%	7%	0.3%	no record
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:35	AUS 14:30	40%	11%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
WN 4719 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:40	AUS 14:20	44%	9%	0.3%	72%worse than usual
WN 399 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:50	AUS 15:35	48%	11%	0.3%	66%worse than usual
WN 2674 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:51	AUS 17:36	55%	16%	0.5%	72%worse than usual
DL 2524 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:50	AUS 19:57	58%	29%	0.8%	56%worse than usual
DL 794 Delta	MCO 18:14	AUS 20:00	60%	28%	0.7%	no record
WN 4402 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:40	AUS 20:30	63%	20%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
WN 2675 Southwest	MCO 17:32	AUS 19:25	63%	20%	0.7%	no record
WN 2598 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:35	AUS 18:25	64%	22%	0.6%	52%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON