Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 972 at 20:05, 60%.

Safest bet today WN 972 MCO 20:05 → BDL 23:00 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest B6 338 MCO 19:44 → BDL 22:42 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 63% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 972 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:05	BDL 23:00	60%	25%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
WN 2884 Southwest	MCO 20:15	BDL 22:59	60%	25%	0.7%	no record
B6 338 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:44	BDL 22:42	68%	34%	1.0%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON