Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2681 at 10:26, 15%.

Safest bet today WN 2681 MCO 10:26 → BNA 11:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4711 MCO 17:20 → BNA 18:30 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2681 Southwest	MCO 10:26	BNA 11:29	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 4713 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 11:00	BNA 12:00	21%	4%	0.2%	84%
WN 2683 Southwest	MCO 11:25	BNA 12:28	21%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 2605 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:15	BNA 13:15	26%	7%	0.2%	59%
WN 2684 Southwest	MCO 14:05	BNA 15:09	31%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 2685 Southwest	MCO 15:15	BNA 16:18	38%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 2606 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:45	BNA 16:50	38%	13%	0.4%	52%
WN 3146 Southwest	MCO 22:50	BNA 23:54	39%	13%	1.0%	no record
WN 4830 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	BNA 23:55	39%	13%	1.0%	49%
F9 3559 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:49	BNA 16:05	42%	27%	0.8%	76%worse than usual
WN 2607 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:40	BNA 20:45	46%	14%	0.5%	36%
WN 2687 Southwest	MCO 20:01	BNA 21:05	46%	11%	0.5%	no record
WN 1898 Southwest	MCO 19:03	BNA 20:07	47%	14%	0.5%	no record
WN 4711 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:20	BNA 18:30	49%	14%	0.6%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON