Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:33 pm at Orlando); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: F9 1954 at 23:17, 49%.

Nonstops today


F9 1954 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	BQN 02:10	49%	30%	1.4%	75%worse than usual
F9 9158 Frontier	MCO 18:10	BQN 20:39	58%	24%	1.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aguadilla on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947	2h 22m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 21:59 → BQN 00:33 +1B6 2471	6h 08m	84%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON