Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2728 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2728 MCO 06:21 → BWI 08:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4004 MCO 18:13 → BWI 20:43 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2728 Southwest	MCO 06:21	BWI 08:45	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2691 Southwest	MCO 07:36	BWI 10:00	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2693 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:51	BWI 11:16	7%	3%	0.7%	67%
WN 2611 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:40	BWI 10:55	7%	2%	0.8%	94%
WN 1956 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:40	BWI 09:55	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
WN 142 Southwest	MCO 10:16	BWI 12:39	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2612 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:30	BWI 11:45	11%	2%	0.8%	86%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:55	BWI 13:10	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	13%	5%	1.8%	89%
WN 160 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	BWI 01:20	24%	9%	1.0%	81%
WN 455 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:55	BWI 00:20	24%	9%	1.2%	55%
WN 962 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:00	BWI 17:25	28%	8%	1.2%	62%
WN 889 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:05	BWI 19:40	30%	13%	1.2%	54%
WN 1015 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:50	BWI 22:15	31%	11%	1.2%	62%
WN 1118 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:40	BWI 21:15	33%	11%	1.3%	32%
F9 2310 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:58	BWI 00:23	34%	16%	2.3%	67%
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:13	BWI 20:43	39%	17%	2.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON