Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2745 at 06:57, 10%.

Safest bet that day AA 2745 MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	10%	3%	2.1%	92%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	15%	4%	1.2%	83%
AA 2088 American Flight history →	MCO 10:40	DCA 12:59	16%	6%	1.9%	93%
WN 4283 Southwest	MCO 09:10	DCA 11:22	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1908 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:45	DCA 12:00	19%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	MCO 11:44	DCA 14:14	20%	9%	1.2%	75%
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	21%	8%	1.0%	86%
AA 2104 American Flight history →	MCO 12:13	DCA 14:31	24%	11%	1.3%	77%
AA 2062 American Flight history →	MCO 14:37	DCA 16:59	28%	16%	1.3%	72%
WN 1188 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:55	28%	13%	0.8%	53%
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	33%	21%	1.0%	59%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	33%	16%	1.8%	70%
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 21:19	DCA 23:37	37%	18%	1.8%	58%
WN 2627 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:20	DCA 22:50	44%	21%	1.2%	40%
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	63%	38%	1.3%	55%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON