tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:21 pm at Orlando); 10 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1643 at 14:37, 38%.

Safest bet today UA 1643 MCO 14:37 → EWR 17:30 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest B6 1728 MCO 19:18 → EWR 21:58 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time
Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 1643 United Flight history → MCO 14:37 EWR 17:30 38% 19% 0.9% 74%worse than usual
UA 1407 United MCO 19:17 EWR 22:11 45% 22% 1.0% no record
UA 2629 United Flight history → MCO 16:04 EWR 18:57 45% 19% 1.0% 63%
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history → MCO 22:15 EWR 01:08 46% 25% 1.4% 90%worse than usual
UA 2662 United MCO 18:10 EWR 21:06 47% 19% 0.8% no record
UA 1651 United Flight history → MCO 19:03 EWR 21:59 47% 22% 1.0% 55%
UA 776 United Flight history → MCO 17:26 EWR 20:03 51% 19% 0.8% 71%worse than usual
B6 2128 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 21:03 EWR 23:43 51% 27% 1.3% 45%
B6 128 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 14:59 EWR 17:50 56% 30% 1.3% 69%worse than usual
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 19:18 EWR 21:58 60% 32% 1.3% 53%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON