Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 276 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 276 MCO 08:55 → IAD 11:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 1997 MCO 19:05 → IAD 21:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 276 United Flight history →	MCO 08:55	IAD 11:14	10%	4%	0.9%	95%
UA 2746 United	MCO 09:00	IAD 11:25	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:48	IAD 15:13	14%	6%	0.8%	83%
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	14%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 2065 United Flight history →	MCO 13:31	IAD 15:50	16%	6%	0.9%	83%
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:06	IAD 10:35	19%	6%	1.3%	77%
UA 413 United Flight history →	MCO 16:45	IAD 19:08	25%	13%	1.3%	73%
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	33%	17%	1.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON