Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 468 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 468 MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 3469 MCO 16:36 → IAH 18:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	10%	3%	0.8%	95%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	IAH 10:45	13%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	13%	5%	0.7%	95%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	17%	5%	0.7%	87%
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:45	21%	6%	1.2%	87%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	27%	11%	1.2%	66%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	MCO 19:20	IAH 20:55	27%	13%	1.2%	68%
UA 1360 United Flight history →	MCO 15:45	IAH 17:24	28%	9%	0.9%	62%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:36	IAH 18:25	38%	14%	1.8%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON