Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 484 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 484 MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1205 MCO 20:00 → LAX 22:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 484 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:28	LAX 08:35	7%	2%	1.2%	95%
UA 2113 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LAX 09:17	9%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 504 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:45	LAX 11:49	11%	2%	1.0%	92%
UA 325 United	MCO 08:59	LAX 11:27	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1928 American Flight history →	MCO 07:12	LAX 09:25	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 1748 American Flight history →	MCO 10:34	LAX 12:47	19%	5%	0.7%	86%
WN 4495 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:20	LAX 11:25	20%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 382 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:25	LAX 19:42	25%	12%	1.8%	70%
UA 1213 United Flight history →	MCO 19:37	LAX 21:55	27%	13%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
DL 872 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LAX 21:30	27%	13%	1.6%	64%
F9 4145 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:30	LAX 17:57	35%	19%	2.1%	80%worse than usual
AA 1205 American Flight history →	MCO 20:00	LAX 22:15	37%	16%	1.2%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7	1h 36m Dallas	DAL 09:26 → LAX 10:40WN 268	7h 25m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 30m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON