Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1563 at 10:53, 35%.

Safest bet today AA 1563 MCO 10:53 → LGA 13:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2432 MCO 13:10 → LGA 16:00 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1563 American	MCO 10:53	LGA 13:28	35%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	38%	8%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:57	LGA 22:55	41%	10%	2.1%	59%
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 20:02	LGA 22:35	42%	11%	2.3%	no record
AA 3114 American Flight history →	MCO 11:12	LGA 13:59	46%	11%	0.7%	76%worse than usual
DL 1362 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:56	LGA 16:54	58%	20%	0.8%	67%worse than usual
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	58%	23%	1.2%	72%worse than usual
AA 2069 American Flight history →	MCO 18:42	LGA 21:29	58%	19%	2.1%	26%
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:56	LGA 16:29	60%	22%	0.7%	76%worse than usual
AA 2224 American	MCO 18:18	LGA 21:10	60%	19%	1.3%	no record
B6 798 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LGA 21:59	65%	22%	1.3%	45%
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:24	LGA 15:01	65%	29%	1.0%	78%worse than usual
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:32	LGA 17:09	67%	30%	1.1%	73%worse than usual
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	72%	30%	1.7%	60%worse than usual
F9 2432 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:10	LGA 16:00	75%	32%	1.7%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON