Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2742 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2742 MCO 06:56 → MDW 08:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2660 MCO 19:35 → MDW 21:25 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2742 Southwest	MCO 06:56	MDW 08:53	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2654 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:25	MDW 09:15	8%	2%	0.9%	88%
WN 2152 Southwest	MCO 08:11	MDW 10:08	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1340 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:15	MDW 10:00	11%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 1568 Southwest	MCO 10:34	MDW 12:29	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4037 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:10	MDW 10:55	14%	2%	0.8%	80%
WN 2657 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:00	MDW 14:40	28%	6%	0.8%	52%
WN 2490 Southwest	MCO 14:25	MDW 16:20	30%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 4762 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	MDW 00:45	33%	10%	1.2%	50%
WN 2658 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:05	MDW 18:00	35%	10%	1.3%	60%
WN 2659 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:10	MDW 20:10	39%	15%	1.3%	51%
WN 2660 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	MDW 21:25	42%	14%	1.2%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON