Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2757 at 13:15, 30%.

Safest bet today WN 2757 MCO 13:15 → MKE 15:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3265 MCO 16:00 → MKE 17:53 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2757 Southwest	MCO 13:15	MKE 15:09	30%	7%	0.3%	no record
WN 2666 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:15	MKE 00:10	32%	10%	1.0%	46%
WN 3029 Southwest	MCO 22:35	MKE 00:29	33%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 987 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:55	MKE 21:50	37%	13%	1.0%	31%
WN 3265 Southwest	MCO 16:00	MKE 17:53	48%	15%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON