Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:49 pm at Orlando); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3316 at 18:35, 54%.

Nonstops today


WN 3316 Southwest	MCO 18:35	OKC 20:31	54%	20%	0.7%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 18:10 → MDW 20:10WN 2659	2h 15m Chicago	MDW 22:25 → OKC 00:35 +1WN 3554	7h 25m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	7h 07m	91%	63%
Southwest Details →	MCO 16:05 → MDW 18:00WN 2658	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → OKC 23:35WN 3881	8h 30m	98%	63%
United Details →	MCO 16:21 → ORD 18:39UA 2071	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 20:34 → OKC 22:45UA 1440	7h 24m	88%	62%
Southwest Details →	MCO 17:20 → LAS 19:15WN 2648	1h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 21:05 → OKC 01:35 +1WN 4160	9h 15m	82%	47%
American Details →	MCO 16:47 → DFW 18:50AA 2097	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33AA 1458	6h 46m	87%	43%
Southwest Details →	MCO 19:40 → BNA 20:45WN 2607	1h 50m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → OKC 00:30 +1WN 608	5h 50m	81%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MCO 19:35 → MDW 21:25WN 2660	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 22:25 → OKC 00:35 +1WN 3554	6h 00m	53%	40%
Delta Details →	MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497	56m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	4h 57m	44%	31%
American Details →	MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33AA 1458	5h 07m	52%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON