Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: WN 352 at 21:25, 49%.

Safest bet today WN 352 MCO 21:25 → ORF 23:30 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time Riskiest F9 2288 MCO 18:29 → ORF 20:39 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Weather 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 352 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:25	ORF 23:30	49%	18%	0.6%	29%
WN 2771 Southwest	MCO 16:47	ORF 18:11	49%	13%	0.6%	no record
F9 2288 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:29	ORF 20:39	54%	37%	2.2%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON