Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2288
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
F9 2288 · MCO → ORF
departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 8:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Sun 10/4 48%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 22%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.47 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 1.2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.