Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4545 at 07:00, 7%.

Safest bet today WN 4545 MCO 07:00 → PVD 09:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2875 MCO 16:20 → PVD 19:17 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4545 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:00	PVD 09:50	7%	1%	0.2%	93%
WN 3241 Southwest	MCO 07:22	PVD 10:15	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2649 Southwest	MCO 19:55	PVD 22:46	39%	12%	1.2%	no record
WN 2785 Southwest	MCO 14:25	PVD 17:16	46%	14%	0.4%	no record
B6 1075 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:02	PVD 16:55	60%	29%	0.9%	69%worse than usual
B6 2875 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:20	PVD 19:17	67%	30%	1.3%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON