Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2825 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–56%.

Safest bet that day WN 2825 MCO 07:50 → SAN 09:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2696 MCO 18:50 → SAN 20:55 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2825 Southwest	MCO 07:50	SAN 09:46	15%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 708 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 07:37	SAN 09:37	15%	3%	1.0%	94%
WN 2695 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:10	SAN 09:10	16%	2%	0.4%	95%worse than usual
AS 707 Alaska	MCO 07:22	SAN 09:22	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 397 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:20	SAN 21:27	41%	13%	1.6%	74%worse than usual
WN 2795 Southwest	MCO 18:20	SAN 20:23	56%	16%	1.3%	no record
WN 2696 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:50	SAN 20:55	56%	16%	1.3%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:40 → AUS 08:15WN 2594	1h 50m Austin	AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435	7h 15m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725	6h 56m	94%	79%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 09:30 → SAN 10:47WN 1762	7h 02m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON