Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1082 at 14:50, 37%.

Safest bet today WN 1082 MCO 14:50 → SDF 17:03 · 37% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3940 MCO 19:25 → SDF 21:38 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1082 Southwest	MCO 14:50	SDF 17:03	37%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4798 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:40	SDF 22:55	50%	16%	1.0%	51%
WN 3940 Southwest	MCO 19:25	SDF 21:38	51%	14%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON