tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:08 am at Orlando)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 30% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:00 → DEN 10:02UA 1714 1h 43m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 8h 24m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:10 → SAN 09:10WN 2695 1h 38m San Diego SAN 10:48 → SJC 12:21WN 539 8h 11m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 09:35 → BNA 10:35WN 2604 2h 00m Nashville BNA 12:35 → SJC 15:24WN 2477 8h 49m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022 3h 55m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 10h 35m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:53 → DFW 09:48AA 2961 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:09 → SJC 14:06AA 2834 9h 13m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:40 → BWI 09:55WN 1956 1h 45m Baltimore BWI 11:40 → SJC 14:32WN 3400 9h 52m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 12:30 → DEN 14:20WN 2631 2h 30m Denver DEN 16:50 → SJC 18:30WN 1777 9h 00m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCO 17:20 → LAS 19:15WN 2648 55m Las Vegas LAS 20:10 → SJC 21:40WN 2352 7h 20m 33% 26%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208 51m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087 8h 35m 30% 25%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 16:00 → DAL 17:50WN 1402 55m Dallas DAL 18:45 → SJC 20:29WN 44 7h 29m 32% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON