Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 314 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–51%.

Safest bet that day WN 314 MCO 06:06 → STL 07:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2815 MCO 19:25 → STL 21:00 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 314 Southwest	MCO 06:06	STL 07:41	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2570 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:50	STL 08:20	5%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 1759 Southwest	MCO 08:26	STL 10:01	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4501 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:50	STL 10:20	9%	1%	0.2%	93%
WN 2949 Southwest	MCO 11:50	STL 13:24	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 5048 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:05	STL 15:40	33%	10%	0.6%	67%
WN 2814 Southwest	MCO 16:30	STL 18:05	41%	10%	0.8%	no record
F9 2635 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:59	STL 16:42	44%	14%	1.2%	72%worse than usual
WN 3236 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:00	STL 20:35	46%	16%	0.8%	46%
WN 2815 Southwest	MCO 19:25	STL 21:00	51%	16%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON