tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, F9 2999 at 12:50, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 2999 Frontier Flight history → MDW 12:50 DFW 15:26 28% 12% 0.8% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 14:47 → DFW 17:16DL 2971 7h 22m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818 7h 03m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 6h 44m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → DFW 20:18DL 436 7h 37m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 16:10 → DFW 17:27DL 374 6h 22m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 1h 10m Detroit DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041 5h 15m 84% 71%
FrontierDetails → MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22F9 2292 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → DFW 12:24F9 1269 6h 19m 89% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON