Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:48 pm at Chicago); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2792 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:20	JAX 22:40	21%	4%	0.6%	51%
WN 4987 Southwest	MDW 15:10	JAX 17:57	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124	3h 00m Houston	HOU 20:35 → JAX 23:51WN 3068	7h 51m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:45 → STL 15:55WN 2903	4h 00m St Louis	STL 19:55 → JAX 23:02WN 4973	7h 17m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020	2h 36m Baltimore	BWI 20:01 → JAX 22:15WN 1037	6h 45m	95%	64%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 59m	95%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON