tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:18 am at Chicago); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 1749 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–37%.

Safest bet today WN 1749 MDW 07:00 → LAX 09:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 188 MDW 18:00 → LAX 20:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time
Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
WN 1749 Southwest MDW 07:00 LAX 09:18 10% 2% 0.2% no record
WN 1908 Southwest MDW 09:50 LAX 12:08 18% 3% 0.2% no record
WN 2433 Southwest Flight history → MDW 10:10 LAX 12:30 18% 3% 0.2% 73%
WN 2966 Southwest MDW 15:55 LAX 18:11 31% 5% 0.2% no record
WN 3364 Southwest Flight history → MDW 21:35 LAX 23:55 35% 6% 0.5% 36%
WN 1726 Southwest MDW 21:20 LAX 23:41 37% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 188 Southwest Flight history → MDW 18:00 LAX 20:20 37% 6% 0.5% 47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765 56m Denver DEN 09:16 → LAX 10:43WN 1644 5h 53m 90% 75%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 10:20 → LAX 11:34WN 2313 6h 04m 91% 72%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 11:20 → LAX 12:45WN 4602 6h 05m 85% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON