Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2816 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2816 MDW 06:30 → MCO 10:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1678 MDW 15:45 → MCO 19:21 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2816 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:30	MCO 10:05	6%	1%	0.8%	90%
WN 2919 Southwest	MDW 05:01	MCO 08:37	7%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 2815 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:10	MCO 08:40	7%	1%	1.1%	93%
WN 2817 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:00	MCO 11:35	11%	3%	0.7%	78%
WN 3798 Southwest	MDW 08:56	MCO 12:32	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2821 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:55	MCO 00:35	19%	7%	1.6%	47%
WN 2818 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	MCO 14:35	20%	5%	1.2%	59%
WN 3884 Southwest	MDW 12:45	MCO 16:21	22%	8%	1.3%	no record
WN 2819 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:40	MCO 17:30	26%	10%	1.9%	55%
WN 2820 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:35	MCO 22:10	27%	9%	1.0%	41%
WN 164 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:10	MCO 20:55	30%	9%	1.2%	75%
WN 2344 Southwest	MDW 14:15	MCO 17:51	32%	11%	1.8%	no record
WN 1678 Southwest	MDW 15:45	MCO 19:21	35%	10%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON