Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 am at Chicago)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 4103 at 07:45, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4103 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:45	PNS 10:00	17%	3%	1.0%	96%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807	6h 33m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:15WN 1377	2h 20m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796	6h 25m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	7h 00m	98%	73%
Southwest Details →	MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124	3h 45m Houston	HOU 21:20 → PNS 23:03WN 3674	8h 03m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	5h 58m	96%	67%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	2h 15m Denver	DEN 13:45 → PNS 17:40WN 2264	7h 45m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727	1h 40m Austin	AUS 13:55 → PNS 15:45WN 931	6h 05m	100%	59%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 15:05 → PNS 16:35WN 4318	5h 15m	98%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON