Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1267 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1267 MDW 07:45 → SDF 10:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4731 MDW 18:55 → SDF 21:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1267 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:45	SDF 10:05	5%	1%	0.2%	95%
WN 2984 Southwest	MDW 07:55	SDF 10:13	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2985 Southwest	MDW 12:45	SDF 15:04	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4473 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:45	SDF 14:55	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 4597 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:45	SDF 22:00	19%	5%	0.6%	70%
WN 4731 Southwest	MDW 18:55	SDF 21:14	19%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON