Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:52 pm at Memphis); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: YV 6172 at 18:58, 23%.

Nonstops today


YV 6172 Mesa	MEM 18:58	IAH 20:55	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5798 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 15:23	IAH 17:25	35%	8%	0.3%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MEM 15:25 → DEN 17:09UA 498	2h 26m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	7h 41m	96%	72%
United Details →	MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29UA 5780 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 18:40 → IAH 21:36UA 1475	7h 14m	91%	69%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 36m	98%	62%
American Details →	MEM 14:46 → DFW 16:29AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:50 → IAH 19:11AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest	4h 25m	84%	54%
American Details →	MEM 17:19 → DFW 19:09AA 3678 · flown by Envoy	3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:53 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	6h 50m	95%	54%
American Details →	MEM 14:33 → CLT 17:20AA 1790	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27AA 1840	7h 54m	100%	53%
United Details →	MEM 16:07 → EWR 19:59UA 3699 · flown by Republic	51m Newark	EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425	7h 36m	75%	51%
American Details →	MEM 14:46 → DFW 16:35AA 3676 · flown by Envoy	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	5h 08m	90%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	5h 59m	61%	49%
American Details →	MEM 19:51 → DFW 21:43AA 3932 · flown by Envoy	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:53 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	4h 18m	70%	40%
American Details →	MEM 18:30 → DFW 20:22AA 3677 · flown by Envoy	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209	3h 54m	44%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON