Today: YX 5605 at 16:58 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–31%.

Safest bet today YX 5605 MEM 16:58 → LGA 20:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4807 MEM 16:58 → LGA 20:17 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 5605 Republic	MEM 16:58	LGA 20:49	21%	7%	0.4%	no record
DL 5779 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 17:30	LGA 21:25	21%	7%	0.5%	81%
AA 4461 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 16:26	LGA 20:14	23%	9%	0.4%	59%
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 16:58	LGA 20:17	31%	9%	0.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON