Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:43 pm at Medford); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1412 at 13:10, 26%.

Nonstops today


UA 1412 United Flight history →	MFR 13:10	DEN 16:43	26%	11%	0.4%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 33m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	MFR 13:41 → SLC 16:36DL 3801 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → DEN 20:01DL 1586	5h 20m	88%	65%
American Details →	MFR 13:23 → PHX 15:51AA 6253 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Phoenix	PHX 19:11 → DEN 22:03AA 3255	7h 40m	99%	51%
Alaska Details →	MFR 13:27 → SEA 14:55AS 3087 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Seattle	SEA 16:26 → DEN 20:10AS 602	5h 43m	87%	28%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MFR 17:24 → SEA 18:55DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	5h 20m	73%	46%
United Details →	MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest	53m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	5h 12m	59%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON