Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4657 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 4657 MHT 05:05 → BWI 06:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3026 MHT 17:25 → BWI 19:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4657 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 05:05	BWI 06:40	3%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 3022 Southwest	MHT 05:25	BWI 07:12	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1035 Southwest	MHT 09:11	BWI 10:59	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2918 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 09:20	BWI 11:00	5%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 3024 Southwest	MHT 11:31	BWI 13:20	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1121 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 11:30	BWI 13:10	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 3025 Southwest	MHT 13:41	BWI 15:31	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 868 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 13:30	BWI 15:05	9%	3%	0.6%	77%
WN 976 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 17:10	BWI 18:50	11%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 3026 Southwest	MHT 17:25	BWI 19:15	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON