Today: DL 1632 at 20:30 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–52%.

Safest bet today DL 1632 MIA 20:30 → ATL 22:54 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time Riskiest AA 1368 MIA 18:26 → ATL 20:00 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1632 Delta Flight history →	MIA 20:30	ATL 22:54	30%	14%	0.2%	37%
DL 719 Delta	MIA 19:48	ATL 21:53	36%	13%	0.2%	no record
AA 659 American Flight history →	MIA 21:56	ATL 23:59	39%	15%	0.3%	64%
AA 1045 American Flight history →	MIA 22:54	ATL 00:56	43%	16%	0.3%	57%
AA 3261 American Flight history →	MIA 20:42	ATL 22:46	44%	17%	0.3%	63%
AA 535 American Flight history →	MIA 18:20	ATL 20:25	45%	14%	0.3%	30%
F9 2271 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:30	ATL 23:38	46%	28%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
AA 1368 American Flight history →	MIA 18:26	ATL 20:00	52%	14%	0.3%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON