Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 33–43% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1227 MIA 13:38 → AUS 15:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 336 MIA 17:00 → AUS 19:05 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1227 American	MIA 13:38	AUS 15:50	33%	14%	0.3%	no record
WN 3059 Southwest	MIA 13:00	AUS 14:57	38%	9%	0.1%	no record
AA 2629 American Flight history →	MIA 19:40	AUS 21:40	38%	12%	0.4%	73%worse than usual
AA 1411 American Flight history →	MIA 14:30	AUS 16:35	38%	14%	0.3%	53%
AA 1427 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	AUS 23:59	40%	12%	0.5%	60%
DL 2344 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:05	AUS 21:13	42%	12%	0.2%	68%worse than usual
WN 336 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 17:00	AUS 19:05	43%	11%	0.1%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON