Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 815 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 815 MIA 06:40 → BOS 10:06 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 1147 MIA 13:43 → BOS 17:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 815 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	BOS 10:06	11%	4%	0.5%	98%
AA 2064 American	MIA 06:50	BOS 10:07	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1589 American Flight history →	MIA 09:26	BOS 12:57	17%	7%	0.4%	82%
DL 1399 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:30	BOS 14:59	19%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 3247 American	MIA 09:54	BOS 13:12	22%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1565 American Flight history →	MIA 10:51	BOS 14:22	22%	6%	1.0%	83%
DL 776 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:55	BOS 23:33	24%	9%	0.7%	69%
AA 1054 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	BOS 00:59	28%	8%	0.9%	60%
AA 1538 American Flight history →	MIA 12:42	BOS 16:17	30%	10%	0.9%	72%
DL 1784 Delta	MIA 20:00	BOS 23:14	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1886 American	MIA 12:44	BOS 16:19	30%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 2539 American Flight history →	MIA 20:20	BOS 23:41	33%	10%	0.8%	59%
AA 1074 American Flight history →	MIA 18:20	BOS 21:45	33%	11%	0.8%	61%
AA 1147 American	MIA 13:43	BOS 17:00	37%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON