Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 974 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 974 MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1634 MIA 15:44 → BWI 18:26 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 974 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 06:20	BWI 08:55	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
WN 4703 Southwest	MIA 06:25	BWI 09:10	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:26	BWI 10:20	19%	7%	1.0%	71%
WN 2924 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 15:05	BWI 17:45	20%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 1624 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 18:50	BWI 21:30	25%	6%	0.6%	40%
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	BWI 23:52	26%	6%	1.2%	57%
AA 1634 American Flight history →	MIA 15:44	BWI 18:26	26%	6%	1.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON