Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1634 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1634 · MIA → BWI

departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1634 · MIA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?