Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1634 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1634 · MIA → BWI

departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1634 · MIA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?